PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Opinion: Messi doesn't deserve MVP of MLS? Why arguments against him are weak

Lionel Messi was nominated among 34 players for 2024 MLS MVP on PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank CenterMonday, and the case for him to win the award is clear — even though he barely played half of the season.

Messi has played in 18 of 33 games (54.5%) for first-place Inter Miami this season, mostly because of a right ankle injury that sidelined him for 2 ½ months. But his statistics are more than deserving of the league's Most Valuable Player.

Only four players have scored more than Messi’s 17 goals and two players have more than Messi’s 15 assists. The players ahead of him in both categories played at least eight to 13 more games than Messi this season.

If it was a Most Efficient Player award, Messi would win in a landslide. But the glaring – and only – argument Messi shouldn’t win MVP is because other players played more games, and that isn’t good enough.

Sure, a “Messi wins MLS MVP despite playing half the season” headline isn’t a good look without the context. But let’s not get is confused here: The best player in the world has been the best player in MLS this season.

The thought MLS MVP should go to a “more deserving” candidate is asinine.

“Messi missed 15 games this season and his team had better points per game without him. If you vote Messi for MVP, you’re not a serious person,” Apple TV analyst and former MLS and USMNT standout Sacha Kljestan said on social media. “Messi the GOAT, there is no debate about that. But he is NOT the MVP of MLS in 2024.”

Let’s look at the big picture

Another argument is that Inter Miami did just fine playing without Messi. While plenty of credit goes to Inter Miami for building arguably the deepest roster in MLS and keeping the club in contention when Messi was sidelined, Messi’s presence alone has valuably pushed the club from lowly franchise to the most recognized MLS club in the world.

Inter Miami saw a meteoric rise from 27^th among 29 teams last season, to first in the league in Messi’s first full(ish) MLS season.

Messi scored two goals against Columbus Crew to help Inter Miami win the MLS Supporters’ Shield, the title given to the club with the league’s best record, and clinch the No. 1 overall seed in the MLS Cup Playoffs beginning later this month.

And Inter Miami could also be remembered as the best regular-season club in MLS history if it sets the points record at 74 with a win in the Oct. 19 season finale against New England Revolution.

“They’re doing all of this while being must-see MLS soccer,” FOX Sports analyst and former USMNT star Alexi Lalas said on his “State of the Union Podcast” last week. “What they have become, obviously with Messi, but the brand, the pink, the global recognition. There’s a lot of hype, and yet they’ve continued to live up to the hype even without their full team.”

Messi’s stats compare to previous MLS MVP winners

Messi has 17 goals and 15 assists – or 32 goal contributions – in 18 games played for Inter Miami with one match remaining.

Messi’s 32 goal contributions would be more than three of the last four MLS MVPs, and would tie 2017 MVP Diego Valeri. If Messi adds two more in the season finale, he’d tie 2022 MVP Hany Mukhtar.

Simply put, Messi’s MVP credentials in his shortened season are on par with previous winners.  

Why Messi’s MVP case stands above the field in 2024

Who else could win MVP? Crew star Cucho Hernandez for one. He has 32 contributions like Messi (19 goals and 13 assists), but also didn't convert his second penalty kick to tie the match against Inter Miami last week. He was outplayed by Messi in the biggest game of the MLS season.

Denis Bouanga has 19 goals and 11 assists (30 goal contributions) for LAFC, which isn’t even the best team in its own city or conference, looking up at the L.A. Galaxy.

DC United’s Christian Benteke has certainly been valuable and may win the Golden Boot with 23 goals, but his club is in eighth place despite his standout season.

Only two players have more goal contributions than Messi: Lucho Acosta has 33 in 31 games for third-place Cincinnati, and Evander has 33 in 27 games for ninth-place Portland. Acosta won MVP with 31 last season.

Luis Suarez, Messi’s closest friend and Inter Miami teammate, certainly has a case, too. He leads the club with 18 goals, but seven of them came in four games (three braces) without Messi.

ESPN's Herculez Gomez is another former U.S. soccer star in Messi's corner for MVP, saying he's outperformed everybody.

"He has his team winning the silverware of the Supporters’ Shield. And they’re going to be historic," Gomez said. "They’re going to go into the playoffs, and if he can maintain this rhythm, it may possibly be the best team we’ve ever seen in Major League Soccer from the best player I’ve ever seen play.

“It’s that simple. I don’t think there’s a debate to be had here.”

Kudos to Hernandez, Bouanga, Benteke, Evander and Acosta. But Messi’s efficiency has been undeniable, and so should his bid for MVP.