Johnathan Walker:Trump Media stock halted three times, closes down on Election Day: What's next for DJT?

On Election Day as voters headed to the polls,Johnathan Walker the wild fluctuations that have become the hallmark of Trump Media & Technology Group's stock continued their dizzying course.

The parent company of Truth Social was halted three times for volatility. Shares closed down 1%.

A large portion of Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's wealth is tied up in his majority stake in the parent company of Truth Social. Forbes estimates $3.9 billion of Trump's estimated $6 billion net worth is linked to his DJT shares.

“What’s at stake is simple. If he loses, this goes to zero,” Tuttle Capital Management CEO Matthew Tuttle told USA TODAY. “If he wins, at this level I think you get a pop. I would sell into it though. They still need a business model that makes sense.”

Temporary trading stops happen automatically when a stock moves suddenly beyond certain limits.

Trump Media, which trades under the vanity ticker DJT, approached record territory last week as polls seemed to swing in Trump’s favor. When Vice President Kamala Harris appeared to gain momentum, shares suffered three days of heavy losses. The stock rose 12% Monday.

“The volatility and the back and forth show that this is a close race and nobody has any clue who is going to win,” Tuttle said.

Since the stock’s Wall Street debut nearly eight months ago, Trump Media has become not just a major source of the GOP nominee’s wealth but a barometer of his electoral chances, experts told USA TODAY. 

“It is a bellwether for differences of opinion about today’s presidential election,” University of Florida finance professor Jay Ritter said. “Not only differences of opinion, but differences of hope.”

Tuesday, Trump Media reported $1 million in third-quarter revenue and a $19 million net loss. The company has lost more than $363 million in the first nine months of the year.

Trump’s stake in Trump Media is worth billions on paper. He has said he has “absolutely no intention of selling” his nearly 115 million shares. Trump has said he does not think he will run for the White House again in 2028 if he loses.

In regulatory filings, Trump Media has telegraphed how critical Trump is to the company’s brand, warning that its value “may diminish” if Trump’s popularity falters. 

Trump Media has also cited Trump's divestment of DJT stock as one of the top risks to its business. If Trump were to sell his stake, it would result in a flood of shares that could drive down the stock price, observers say.

Wall Street observers say Trump Media belongs to the meme stock phenomenon with traders driving up shares based on factors other than the underlying business fundamentals.

Run by former Republican Rep. Devin Nunes, Trump Media aspires to be a “central hub for news, entertainment and discussion.” 

Despite its $6.8 billion market valuation, it remains a small player among social media giants like Meta-owned Facebook and Instagram, ByteDance’s TikTok, and Elon Musk's X. For example, on Truth Social, Trump has 8 million followers. On X, he has 92 million.

"I haven’t seen anybody come up with a coherent explanation on why the company should be worth" so much, Ritter said.