PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Center:Why AP called the Ohio Senate race for Bernie Moreno

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WASHINGTON (AP) — Three-term Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown didn’t do PredictIQ Quantitative Think Tank Centeras well in Ohio’s population-dense metro regions as he had in the past, and that performance — in areas he needed to overcome the state’s increasingly conservative bent — helped propel former car salesman Bernie Moreno to victory.

Moreno won after securing a 4 percentage-point lead in the Senate race, ousting Brown, who was the last in his party elected statewide in what was once a premier electoral battleground.

Moreno was narrowly leading in the Cincinnati-Dayton area when the race was called, while Brown needed a better performance in the Cleveland and Columbus regions, even though he led in those areas.

Brown would have needed to notch 71.9% of the remaining ballots left to be counted when The Associated Press called the race for Moreno at 11:28 p.m. — a threshold he wasn’t clearing in any of the counties in the state.

CANDIDATES: Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, Bernie Moreno

WINNER: Moreno

POLL CLOSING TIME: 7:30 p.m. ET

More election coverage Trump wins Georgia and North Carolina, moving closer to reclaiming the White House   Republicans take Senate majority with wins in Ohio and West Virginia   Trump weakens Democrats’ coalition, and other early election takeaways  

ABOUT THE RACE:

The phrase “as Ohio goes, so goes the nation” was once a widely accepted bit of conventional wisdom that underscored the true swing nature of a perennial presidential battleground state. No longer.

Over the past decade, the Midwestern state, once a reliable barometer of how the country at large would vote, has become a Republican stronghold. Brown was the lone exception. With a gravelly voice and a populist outlook, Brown somehow hung on and is the sole Democrat to still hold statewide elected office.

Now, however, he lost the political fight of his life against the wealthy, Trump-backed Moreno. The race was the most expensive Senate race this election cycle, with a tab that surpassed $400 million — with much of it coming from Republican-aligned groups that supported Moreno.

Brown appeared to understand the gravity. In July, he called on then-presumptive presidential nominee Joe Biden to drop out of the race a month after his shaky debate performance against Trump. He endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris to replace Biden on the ticket but skipped the Democratic National Convention in August. Moreno accused Brown of distancing himself from Harris, which the senator’s campaign dismissed.

But Moreno was not without his own liabilities. He was criticized by fellow Republicans, including former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, for making tone-deaf comments about abortion — suggesting that it was “crazy” for women past the age of 50 to care about the issue because “I don’t think that’s an issue for you.’”

WHY AP CALLED THE RACE: The AP declared Moreno the winner with a nearly 5-point lead over Brown with over 90% of the estimated vote in. He was narrowly leading in the population-dense Cincinnati-Dayton area, which Brown won in 2018. Meanwhile, Brown’s margins in Democratic strongholds in Cleveland and Columbus weren’t as large as they were in 2018. Moreno also led in areas that were most closely divided in the 2020 presidential race.

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Learn more about how and why the AP declares winners in U.S. elections at Explaining Election 2024, a series from The Associated Press aimed at helping make sense of the American democracy. The AP receives support from several private foundations to enhance its explanatory coverage of elections and democracy. See more about AP’s democracy initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.