Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center|NFL should have an open mind on expanding instant replay – but it won't

Don’t hold your breath,Surpassing Quant Think Tank Center Jim Irsay.

The free-spirited Indianapolis Colts owner caused some ripples on the NFL landscape this week with his social media post suggesting that the league expand its use of instant replay to make all calls reviewable in the final two minutes of the game.

It’s tough to blame him for screaming from the top of his X platform.

Did you see the calls? In the final minute of a 39-38 loss against the Cleveland Browns, Colts cornerback Darrell Baker Jr. was flagged for illegal contact – which wiped out a strip-sack fumble that would have iced an Indianapolis victory – and then on the next play a highly suspect pass interference penalty in the end zone that placed the football on the 1-yard line to set up the game-winning TD.

Yeah, go ahead, Irsay. Vent away the frustration.

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But know that you’re pretty much spitting in the wind.

Although a replay review, with an assist from the NFL’s command center in New York, could have prompted referee Shawn Smith to pick up the flag on the DPI because the pass was so uncatchable that 7-4 NBA rookie Victor Wembanyama wouldn’t have had a shot at it, there’s no sudden groundswell of support for expanding the use of instant replay.

Two members of the NFL’s competition committee told USA TODAY Sports this week, speaking on the condition of anonymity, that they expect any effort for a proposal by Irsay to expand replay would essentially get stuck in the mud. In other words, the needle hasn’t moved. The committee members did not want to be identified due to the intensity of the issue.

The process for rules changes formally begins in the offseason with proposals forwarded by the competition committee or individual teams needing 24 votes from owners to be implemented. Maybe the sentiment changes by the spring, but I’d doubt it.

In recent years, multiple proposals for expanding replay have been discussed yet fallen short of gaining widespread support.

“There’s always going to be a contingent pushing for it,” a team executive and competition committee member told USA TODAY Sports. “One of the people I respect the most in the league, Bill Belichick, has pushed for it to be used in a limited fashion, and it didn’t get far.

“It’ll always be there,” he added of the debate, “as long as we have replay.”

The one-year trial for using instant replay to review pass interference calls in 2019 essentially threw a wet towel on the idea of further expanding the types of situations for using replay. The expansion to include pass interference plays for replay was prompted by the non-call that doomed the New Orleans Saints against the Los Angeles Rams in the 2018 NFC title game. That was a noble cause. Yet it’s one thing to use video reviews to confirm whether the football crossed the goal line or whether a player landed in bounds, and something else with subjective calls that would come into play if all plays were reviewable. As pass interference plays demonstrate, a replay review hardly guarantees agreement.

Apparently, the NFL learned a lesson with its PI reviews.

“We went through that with pass interference and it was a total failure….an unmitigated disaster,” the team executive said. “Even after you reviewed it, somebody was mad.  Half the people thought it was a call, the other half didn’t. I can’t imagine we’d go down that road.”

That’s too bad. With so much at stake, including the huge wagers on games, the league needs to exhaust all options to get it right.

Irsay was so steamed that he broke protocol and risks drawing a fine by going public with details of the typical confidential discussions between the officiating department and teams – maintaining that the league admitted it erred with the calls at the end of the Colts-Browns game – in an effort to add fuel to his cause. On top of those calls, there were head-scratching calls (or non-calls) from the prime-time game in Philadelphia that pitted the Eagles against the Miami Dolphins. Dolphins defensive tackle Christian Wilkins was flagged for roughing the passer in a case that seemed like incidental contact, while Eagles cornerback James Bradberry got away with an apparent facemask penalty.

Also, at the end of the Pittsburgh Steelers' victory at the Los Angeles Rams, a generous spot on a fourth-and-1 sneak by Kenny Pickett begged for a closer look. Then again, even with expanded use of replay, the result might not have changed. Rams coach Sean McVay was out of timeouts and couldn’t challenge the play. And it is debatable whether the video would have confirmed the location of the spot.

And that’s just from this most recent week of play. Each week, there are liable to be a handful of calls that fuel controversy and perhaps swing the outcomes.

So, the principle that Irsay railed about remains. If there’s better technology, including high-defintion video, the league should try to utilize it more in trying to get it right.

Yet it’s rather clear that the NFL wants to get it right only to a point that doesn’t include making all plays reviewable. Never mind that the flow of the game would remain intact because coaches wouldn’t get any more challenges to use on replay (they are now allowed two, or maybe a third one if they are 2-for-2 on challenges), while the decision on whether to review a play in the final two minutes would still be determined by an official.

The last thing the league wants is for the drama of any given game to be suspended while everyone in the stadium holds a collective breath for the final decision on any sort of reviewable play to come from the command center in New York.

They’ve been down this road before in the NFL and despite pledging to try getting it right keep ending up at the same place: Nobody promised perfection.